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STV poll: Remain still ahead, but Leave gains ground

The poll also shows less than 50% want a second referendum if Brexit occurs.

By STV News

Published 15 Jun 2016.

The campaign to leave the European Union has gained ground in Scotland since April, an STV News poll suggests.

The survey, carried out by Ipsos MORI, shows support for the Remain campaign being reduced by 13 percentage points over the past six weeks. Despite the loss in support the campaign still holds a commanding lead as the referendum looms.

In April, support for Remain in Scotland was at 66% with the Leave campaign trailing behind on 29%.

Since then support for the pro-EU campaign has reduced to 53% while the Leave campaign has gained ground and is now on 32%.

When the polling figures are narrowed to those most likely to vote it is good news for the Remain campaign.

Support for the EU amongst these voters is 58%, five percentage points greater than the poll of all voters.

The Leave campaign also gains ground but not to the same extent as their rivals. Their support only grows by a solitary percentage point to 33%.

This gives the pro-EU campaign a commanding 25 percentage point lead over their rivals in Scotland.

In every question polled more Scots believe Brexit would make them and their country worse off than those who believe it would be better.

According to the poll, Scots believe Brexit would damage the economy, their personal standard of living and public services.

Voters also indicated they believe leaving the EU would diminish both Scotland and Britain's influence in the world.

These are some of the key factors which influence how Scots will cast their EU Referendum poll.

The SNP's Holyrood manifesto stated the party would view Brexit as 'material change' which could lead them to support a second independence referendum.

Before the election SNP leader Nicola Sturgeon said: "If we are taken out of the EU against our will I will want to give the people of Scotland the opportunity to protect our EU membership by looking again at the question of independence".

Our poll shows however that a majority of Scots do not back a second referendum in the event of the UK as a whole voting to Leave but Scotland voting to Remain in the European Union.

A total of 47% of those polled back a post-Brexit second referendum, 45% do not want one while a further 8% either neither agree or don't know.

Voters will go to polls on June 23 to decide if the United Kingdom should Remain or Leave the European Union. It is the second referendum on membership since Britain joined the then European Economic Community on January 1, 1973.

You can follow the referendum results on STV from 10pm until 6am with live updates from Scotland with STV's political editor Bernard Ponsonby.