Americans I met were terrified of Trump but he could still win
Comment: Kezia Dugdale, in the US on a cross-party delegation, reports on the rise of populism.
"Why did you do it?"
That's the initial reaction to Britain's vote to leave the European Union here in the United States, where I am visiting as part of a cross-party delegation.
Having met senior officials in the US State Department, state government officials in Colorado, senior advisors on Capitol Hill, business leaders and others, the overwhelming sense from people in the United States is that they have no idea what Brexit will mean for us or for them. The only thing they were certain about was the uncertainty.
Whether it was future trade deals, the relationship between the US and the UK, or the future of the UK itself, people simply could not explain what the future would hold. From business leaders there was a sense not of an immediate Apocalypse, but more of a slow gradual decline. Firms may not initially transfer existing jobs and investments elsewhere, but when it comes to making future investment decisions other EU nations will look like more attractive options.
Once people in the United States move past their confusion at a decision with so many negative and self-inflicted consequences, they turn their attention to the upcoming presidential election.
"If it can happen in Britain, it can happen here."
People in Washington in particular, but also right across the country, are terrified by the Trump phenomenon. There is a genuine sense of fear at the prospect of a President Trump and what that would mean not only for life in the United States but for the reputation of this great country abroad. In one sense you would expect that kind of response from the elite living inside the beltway. Yet as we have travelled across the country the same sense of dread is apparent.
There are clear parallels between the Brexit vote and the rise of Trump. At the root of it all is a growing sense amongst people that they have no control over their lives, the feeling that their country and surroundings are changing without their involvement. Economic insecurity is at the heart of this sense of powerlessness. For those who have no job there is too often no hope. Even those who are in employment find themselves in low-skilled, low-paid work that could be taken away from them at short notice.
In a world of post-truth politics, warnings about the economic impact of voting in a certain way are dismissed. When you've got nothing to lose, why would you be frightened by the consequences of Brexit or Trump? .
Too many people, both in Britain and in the United States, are quick to dismiss Brexit voters and Trump supporters as racists. It's a convenient explanation that certainly lets the political establishment off the hook. "We aren't to blame, it's all those racists" is the sense amongst too many of the elite. And whilst race undoubtedly plays a part for many Brexit and Trump supporters, I don't believe it to be anywhere close to the full story.
Politicians in all parties and in all countries must seriously address the underlying causes of the populism that is sweeping the world. At the heart of that must be investing in education.
We need to give our people the skills they need to compete for the jobs of the future and to move from one career to another. The crisis in the North Sea oil and gas industry is a prime example of this. Thousands of jobs have already been lost because of the collapse in the oil price, and hundreds of thousands more could go in the coming months and years.
Those workers who have been on the rigs for years, doing the only thing they know and working in the only role they have been trained for, now need to be re-skilled so they can embark on a second career. Market forces have turned their world upside down, and only greater investment in their education and training will give them any sense of control over their lives. It's pattern repeating itself in traditional industries the world over.
We must act now to ensure that the next generation are better placed to meet the challenges of globalisation than their parents and grandparents. Investing in education now will pay dividends in the future. Both at home in the UK and here in Washington there is consensus that developing the skills of our young people in stem (science, technology, engineering and mathematics) is the key. We need to move to the next step -- agreeing isn't enough, government must come good with the funding required.
Seventeen million people in the UK voted for Brexit. More than 13 million people in the United States voted for Donald Trump in the Republican primaries. This is a problem that isn't going away any time soon.
Only by giving people more economic security and greater control over their own lives can we hope to tempt voters away from the extremes being offered around the world. No matter who wins in November, the United States and all the nations of the world must face up to this challenge
Comment by Kezia Dugdale, leader of the Scottish Labour Party.